**Top 5 value drivers** for classic cars: **(1) Condition rating (1.5x multiplier range)**: Concours/show quality commands 150% premium over driver-quality "good" condition, while project cars trade at 30% of good value.

A $85,000 Corvette in good condition = $127,500 in concours or $25,500 as project. **(2) Originality (up to 30% swing)**: 100% original parts (numbers-matching engine, factory transmission, original body panels) adds 15% premium.

Heavy modifications subtract 40%, even with quality work. $85K car with 100% originality = $97,750; with extensive mods = $51,000. **(3) Mileage (<10K miles vs >150K miles = 45% gap)**: Ultra-low mileage (<10,000 miles) adds 15%, while high mileage (>150K) subtracts 30%.

Collectors prize "time capsule" cars. **(4) Documentation (+15% to -8%)**: Full provenance (original build sheet, service records, ownership history, restoration photos) commands 15% premium.

Title-only cars discount 8% due to authenticity concerns. **(5) Market trends**: Model-specific demand swings ±30%. 1960s muscle cars peaked 2015-2021, now stabilizing.

Pre-war classics (1920-1940) appreciating strongly (+20-30% 2020-2025). **Example**: 1967 Corvette L71 427/435hp: Base $125K, Concours +$62.5K, Numbers-matching +$18.75K, 8,000 miles +$18.75K, Full documentation +$18.75K = **$243,750** high-end valuation.

Same car as project with 200K miles and no docs = **$37,500**. **Condition accounts for 60-70% of value variation**, making professional restoration ROI-positive for rare/desirable models.

**Historical appreciation rates (1970-2025)**: Classic cars averaged **5.8% annual return** (outperforming 3.2% inflation, lagging 10.2% S&P 500).

Top tier (Ferrari 250 GTO, Shelby Cobra, Hemi Cuda convertible) averaged **12-18% annually**.

Mid-tier muscle cars (Chevelle SS, Mustang GT, Charger R/T) averaged **4-6% annually**.

Driver-quality/modified cars averaged **2-3%** (barely matching inflation). **Peak market periods**: 2014-2016 (QE money influx), 2020-2021 (pandemic collectibles boom). **Current market (2025)**: Cooling from 2021 highs, many models down 10-20% but stabilizing. **Buy signals**: (1) Model depreciated 20%+ from peak (buying opportunity), (2) Documentation/provenance undervalued (easy premium capture), (3) Original examples of modified-common models (1970s Camaros: 90% modified, 10% original = scarcity premium). **Sell signals**: (1) Restoration completed to concours (top dollar exit), (2) Model hitting auction/media peak (Bullitt Mustang spiked after 2018 movie), (3) Personal need liquidity (classic cars illiquid, 60-90 days to sell). **Best holding period**: 7-15 years captures appreciation while avoiding restoration repeat. **Avoid**: Buying at market peak (2021 prices down 15-25% now), poorly documented cars (8% discount hard to overcome), trendy models (DeLorean, Studebaker Avanti spiked then crashed). **5-year forecast accuracy**: 70-80% for established models (Corvette, 911, Mustang), 40-50% for obscure/emerging classics. **Use insurance appraisals** (Hagerty, Grundy, American Collectors) for reliable current values, not online estimates. **Market timing is secondary to buying quality**: Concours cars appreciate in all markets, project cars stagnate. **Best practice**: Buy excellent/concours condition only, hold minimum 5 years, sell before major repair needs (transmission, engine rebuild).

A $100K concours investment appreciating 5%/year = $127,628 after 5 years; same $100K as "good" condition appreciating 3%/year = $115,927. **Condition premium compounds over time**.